Every drop gets a file: what is coming, why it will be chased, how little of it exists — opened before the resale market has anything to react to. COP / WATCH / PASS is what those inputs compute to — a reading, not a suggestion.
Under coverage: Topps Chrome · Bowman Chrome · Panini Flawless · Disney Sapphire
This is one file. The desk never stops filing.
An open file is what the desk knew at one timestamp. Arbitrage Alpha is the desk running live: Origination Radar reading 8-K filings for supply nobody has reported yet, Igniting Now, Radar Watch, sell-by windows and net in hand across every covered lane — re-scored continuously, not nightly. $100/mo.
Ask for any drop and the desk opens the whole file: the drop date, the projected multiple (projected resale divided by retail), Win odds (the model's probability this clears 2× retail), Demand (where this drop ranks against every drop the desk is watching, on public interest), the indexed sold median from eBay sold listings where it exists, net in hand after venue fees and shipping, and the sell by window. Every file carries one verdict on one ladder — COP, WATCH or PASS — computed from those inputs rather than handed down, and every number wears its definition. Backtested at 68.8% (cross-validated) on 58 resolved drops, against a 52% coin-flip baseline. 69 live calls are being graded in public as they resolve.
119 drops are under coverage today. The ones landing soonest:
2026-27 Topps English Premier League Soccer Hobby 12-Box Casedrops Sep 16 · tracking · Cards
2026-27 Topps English Premier League Soccer Hobby Boxdrops Sep 16 · tracking · Cards
2026 Super Break Pieces of the Past Historical Premium Hobby Boxdrops Sep 16 · tracking · Cards
