DropForecast's hype-decay model says 2025-26 Panini National Treasures FIFA Road to World Cup Soccer Hobby Box peaks about 14 days after drop (~Oct 7). Sell by Oct 11 (band Sep 27 – Oct 25). Holding 60 days past that costs an estimated ~26% of resale value (17–33% band) as the hype premium burns off. It drops Sep 23 — the clock starts then.
Backtested at 68.8% (cross-validated) on 58 resolved drops, against a 52% coin-flip baseline. 69 live calls are being graded in public as they resolve. Wins and misses both are on the track record page — read the misses before you act on the hits.
Model basis: the category prior — no price history for this product yet. Category: Cards. This is a statistical estimate of hype decay from public signals — low confidence, band Sep 27 – Oct 25 — not investment advice or a guarantee. Resale markets move; verify live comps before selling. DropForecast grades its calls in public at /scoreboard.
