DropForecast's hype-decay model says 2025-26 Topps Chrome Black Basketball Hobby Box peaks about 21 days after drop (~Sep 17). Sell by Sep 21 (band Sep 7 – Oct 5). Holding 60 days past that costs an estimated ~19% of resale value (12–28% band) as the hype premium burns off. It drops Aug 27 — the clock starts then.
Model basis: category prior (no price history yet). Category: Sealed. This is a statistical estimate of hype decay from public signals — low confidence, band Sep 7 – Oct 5 — not investment advice or a guarantee. Resale markets move; verify live comps before selling. DropForecast grades its calls in public at /scoreboard.
