DropForecast's hype-decay model says 2025-26 Topps Chrome Update Series Basketball Mega Box peaks about 21 days after drop (~Aug 27). Sell by Aug 31 (band Aug 17 – Sep 14). Holding 60 days past that costs an estimated ~19% of resale value (12–28% band) as the hype premium burns off. It drops Aug 6 — the clock starts then.
Model basis: category prior (no price history yet). Category: Sealed. This is a statistical estimate of hype decay from public signals — low confidence, band Aug 17 – Sep 14 — not investment advice or a guarantee. Resale markets move; verify live comps before selling. DropForecast grades its calls in public at /scoreboard.
