DropForecast's hype-decay model says 2025-26 Topps Inception Basketball Hobby Box - First Day Issue (FDI) peaks about 21 days after drop (~Aug 13). Sell by Aug 17 (band Aug 3 – Aug 31). Holding 60 days past that costs an estimated ~19% of resale value (12–28% band) as the hype premium burns off. It dropped 62 days ago and is past its modeled peak — every week of holding now burns value.
Drop Jul 23 · peak about Aug 13 · sell by Aug 17 · the chart runs 171 days past the drop · today is day 62
Dated events that landed alongside comp movement on this item. This is correlation, not proof of cause — it is published so you can judge the link yourself.
97 calls filed since Jul 22 · 47 matured · 0 graded (0 hits, 0 misses) · 47 unresolvable so far — every one listed on the ledger. Wins and misses both are on the track record page — read the misses before you act on the hits.
Model basis: the category prior — no price history for this product yet. Category: Sealed. This is a statistical estimate of hype decay from public signals — low confidence, band Aug 3 – Aug 31 — not investment advice or a guarantee. Resale markets move; verify live comps before selling. DropForecast grades its calls in public at /scoreboard.
