DropForecast's hype-decay model says 2025-26 Topps Inception Basketball Hobby Box - First Day Issue (FDI) peaks about 21 days after drop (~Aug 13). Sell by Aug 17 (band Aug 3 – Aug 31). Holding 60 days past that costs an estimated ~19% of resale value (12–28% band) as the hype premium burns off. It dropped 2 days ago and is still climbing toward its modeled peak.
Model basis: category prior (no price history yet). Category: Sealed. This is a statistical estimate of hype decay from public signals — low confidence, band Aug 3 – Aug 31 — not investment advice or a guarantee. Resale markets move; verify live comps before selling. DropForecast grades its calls in public at /scoreboard.
