DropForecast's hype-decay model says 2026 Topps Chrome Baseball Mega Box peaks about 14 days after drop (~Aug 19). Sell by Aug 23 (band Aug 9 – Sep 6). Holding 60 days past that costs an estimated ~26% of resale value (17–33% band) as the hype premium burns off. It drops Aug 5 — the clock starts then.
Model basis: category prior (no price history yet). Category: Cards. This is a statistical estimate of hype decay from public signals — low confidence, band Aug 9 – Sep 6 — not investment advice or a guarantee. Resale markets move; verify live comps before selling. DropForecast grades its calls in public at /scoreboard.
